다음은 어제자 뉴욕타임즈 기사인데... 정말 우리나라를 비롯한 아시아 국가의 주가상승을 설명하지 못했던 호사가들이 적절한 용어를 찾아내었더군요. 이름하여 "Casino effect".... July 22, 1999 The Casino Effect in Asian Stock Markets By WAYNE ARNOLD [S] INGAPORE -- In one of Southeast Asia's perplexing riddles, investors keep plowing money into the region's stock markets even as governments dither over the urgent financial and regulatory overhauls many of them promised in the wake of the economic crisis that began two years ago. Asian markets are soaring despite a widely held view among financial experts that the collusion, corruption and financial bungling that contributed to Asia's troubles have merely been diluted, not eradicated. Many of the same economists, bankers and investors say that the market recovery has helped lull the region into complacency about the need for more politically distasteful economic medicine. But a closer look at which investors are driving the recovery in Asian stocks and what kind of markets they have created suggests that the rally is not as unlikely as it seems. Some say that the soaring Asian equity markets are not a vote of economic confidence, but rather a symptom of continuing financial gridlock that has turned these markets into corporate casinos for skeptical Asian savers and skittish Asian banks. While higher stock prices may ultimately help companies raise cash and strengthen their balance sheets, some economists say that the rally represents a false dawn that has yet to convince foreign investors. Restructuring is key to making this recovery long term, says Bernhard Eschweiler, head of economic research at Morgan Guaranty Trust. And the big gains in Asian stock indexes are helping to obscure just how much value corporate Asia has lost. Indonesia's benchmark stock index, for example, has risen by almost two-thirds so far this year, almost back to where it was before the crisis began late in 1997. That sounds terrific until the decline in Indonesia's currency is factored in, which makes the stock market there worth only about half as much in U.S. dollars as it was two years ago. The same goes for Malaysia -- despite a 43 percent rise by its benchmark stock index this year. Economic considerations aside, some argue that the latest rally makes sense if only from the standpoint of accounting for currency devaluations -- a sort of inflation adjustment by fund managers rejiggering their global portfolios so they more closely mimic the relative size and growth potential of economies. Others assume that new wealth being created in U.S. stock markets is finding its way to Asia as investors seek to diversify their holdings. But data suggest that the opposite has been taking place. Since the crisis started, investors have withdrawn an estimated $1.77 billion from American mutual funds investing in Asian markets other than Japan, according to Lipper Inc. And while those funds have grown by 44 percent so far this year as markets swelled, they have only half as much money invested in the region as they did when the crisis started. The world's biggest pool of capital -- the United States -- does not appear to be unambiguously behind the Asian rally. That may be changing. Lipper says investors pumped an estimated $380 million into those Asian funds last month, the biggest monthly inflow in more than two years. And Asia's economies, reforming or not, are showing signs that they are recovering. Inflation is under control, interest rates are falling, exports are rising, and Asians are saving more than they spend. So why haven't foreign investors been moving into the region more aggressively? Analysts and fund managers say it is largely because U.S. stocks are doing too well to risk putting money into economies that are still under renovation. "It's still not fashionable yet to be looking at opportunities offshore," says Dominic Armstrong, head of Malaysia and Singapore research at ABN Amro Asia Ltd. At the same time, however, Asia's savers are giving banks a growing pile of deposits that they either cannot afford to lend or that companies are too indebted to borrow. Brokers say that a lot of that money is ending up in regional stock markets for lack of a better place to go. Joining it are small, local investors eager to make a quick profit on the surge in stocks. "It's the old-fashioned gambling mentality," says Hugh Young, managing director at Aberdeen Asset Management. "The consumer is still quite nervous, but is quite happy to pump the market." Brokers and economists point to Malaysia as a prime illustration. Foreigners are reluctant to put money into a market where the government will tax them up to 30 percent for funds they withdraw within a year of investing them. Instead, the market's gains are being driven primarily by local investors, they say -- in some ways the very type of short-term "hot money" that Malaysia had hoped to discourage by imposing currency controls last September. "The casino element is taking over," said William Belchere, head of fixed-income research and strategy at Merrill Lynch International Bank Ltd. That much is evident from statistics measuring the volatility of Asia's markets. Trading in Kuala Lumpur has nearly quadrupled, compared with its level at the start of the crisis. At the same time, the market is twice as volatile as it was two years ago. Bangkok's stock market is almost as turbulent now as it was in the uncertain days before the Thai baht was devalued in July 1997. And Jakarta's stock market yo-yos more than any of the others. Asian markets are, of course, minuscule compared with the New York Stock Exchange, so it takes a lot less money to move them. Nevertheless, the amount of local money pouring into these markets has important implications for economic recovery, market experts say, since it demonstrates that despite Asia's difficulties, the region is sitting on sizable amounts of investor money. "It's a frightening indication of how much cash there is in Asia," Armstrong of ABN Amro said. ----------------------------------------------------------- Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company