My New Year's Resolution is to file my columns early. This one was
written 10 years before deadline.
SAN JOSE, Calif., Dec. 30, 2009 -- Only a decade ago, the
Silicon Valley of California was viewed as technology's promised
land, a place where bungalows cost $1 million and even the youngest
computer programmer had stock options that seemed likely to be worth
millions soon.
But now, years after the Internet crash of 2003, it has become a
region
of jealousies and recriminations. Working relationships were
poisoned
when employees learned that top executives secretly hedged their
positions, and thus did not suffer. Banks sued formerly wealthy
entrepreneurs, saying they hid assets to avoid paying their debts.
All that has happened even though many of the Valley's technology
companies remain very successful, and the Internet-based economy
continues to gain at the expense of the older bricks-and-mortar
economy. But few of the companies have lived up to the high
expectations that were factored into stock prices before they fell.
Many
of the highest fliers have vanished from the landscape, either
going out of
business or being acquired by competitors for a fraction of the
prices
their shares once fetched.
Among the survivors, employees scarred by the collapsing value of
their
stock options now prefer the certainty of higher salaries.
It is the fate of the once-bountiful stock options that has most
determined
the current pecking order in Silicon Valley. At the top are those
who
cashed in their options before the fall. Next come those who worked
for
companies that prospered. Their salaries have helped to offset the
paper
losses, and many companies repriced their options after prices
fell, thus
saving some value for the employees, before angry shareholders
forced a
halt to that practice.
At the bottom, and perhaps the largest group, are those who did not
cash
out and whose companies were not among the winners. While many of
them landed jobs at other companies, their wealth has vanished and
some
have lost their homes. Housing prices fell sharply after the
options lost
value, and have only recently begun to recover. Some financial
institutions
were severely damaged when loans secured by stock options became
uncollectible.
The inevitable jealousies reflect the seeming randomness of success
and
failure. There are tales of employees who did poor jobs but ended up
rich, while their more competent and creative neighbors went
bankrupt.
Younger engineers are angry that they have no chance for the quick
wealth their elders gained, and scornful of those who lost it.
Nationally, the effect on the economy has not been as great as was
feared. While some other regions with big stakes in the Internet
economy
were hurt, most notably Seattle and New York City, the effect on
most
of the country was limited. Consumers cut back, but not by as much
as
was expected considering the declining value of investment
portfolios.
Growth since 2003 has been far higher than it was in Japan in the
years
after that country's bubble burst in 1990. In part, that was because
American nontechnology stocks were not nearly as overvalued.
Investors have grown much more cautious.
That is reflected in the diminished amount of capital available for
start-ups, and in other ways as well.
Even Microsoft, which became the world's most valuable company long
before it paid its first dividend in 2004, now finds that it must
raise its
payout every year to attract investors.