모 게시판에 올라온 글입니다. 모 게시판과 글쓴이는 여기서 언급하면 안될 것 같습니다. -.-a 혹시 그분이 보신다면..용서를.. ------ 아마도 작년에 아프리카에서 이스라앨 민간 항공기에 대한 terror를 기억하시는 분이 있을 것입니다. 생각만 해도 아찔한 일이지만, 심각한 문제 제기도 되고해서,.. 요약하면 israel 민간 항공기에 휴대용 sam을 발사하였는 데, 다행히 명중이 되지 않았지만 왜 명중이 안됐을까는 분석이 되어야 할 것 갔읍니다. 민간 항공기의 열적 feature는 보통의 전투기 보다 훨씬 크고 또 한 크기도 엄청크고 등 등 명중될 확률이 더 많은 데도 불구하고??? 아래 글은 jane's 기자의 분석입니다. 1. 이 번 발사된 미사일은 stela 급(Igla 전 version)임 2. -제작년도가 1976년경임 --> 수명이 다 됐음 -운용병의 실수 --> 아무리 자동이래도 항상 문제 점은 있음 -항공기의 고도가 너무 낮았음--> stela의 minimum altitude는 30m임 -이스라엘 민간 항공기에 EOCM 이 설치되었음(미확인)-->VIP항공기에 는 거의 있음 등입니다. ---- SURFACE-TO-AIR Date Posted: December 23, 2002 JANE'S MISSILES AND ROCKETS - JANUARY 01, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Failed Strela-2M attack highlights airliner vulnerability Doug Richardson Investigators are studying possible reasons for the failure of the surface-to-air missile attack mounted against a Boeing 757 of the Israeli airline Arkia at Mombasa airport, Kenya, on 28 November 2002, writes Doug Richardson. Responsibility for the attack, and the near-simultaneous suicide-bomb attack on the Paradise Hotel in the Kenyan beach resort of Kikambala has been claimed by a previously unknown group calling itself the 'Government of Universal Palestine in Exile, The Army of Palestine'. However, an Israeli government official said that the attack bore the hallmarks of an Al-Qaeda operation and "it was assumed that the group is a branch of Al-Qaeda". Several days later a message purportedly from Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the two attacks. Following the missile attack, two missile launch containers and two grip-stocks (early reports mentioned only a single grip-stock) were recovered from a location approximately 2km from the airport. These have been identified as being Strela-2M (Sa-7b 'Grail') hardware. Sources close to the investigation told our sister journal Jane's Defence Weekly that a grip-stock recovered at Mombasa carried the Russian designation 9P58, the correct designation for a Russian-built Strela-2M grip-stock. (The earlier Strela-2 version uses a 9P53 grip-stock.) According to press reports, the serial numbers on the recovered hardware show that these items were manufactured in 1974 by the VA Degtyarev Plant. Located at Korov in Russia, this facility currently manufactures the Igla-series MANPADS. The serial numbers are reported to be close to that of a discarded launch tube recovered outside Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, in May 2002, which suggest that a batch of Strela-2M hardware is currently available for terrorist use. The combat record of the Strela system when used against combat aircraft and helicopters is typical for a first-generation SAM system. Strela-2 was first used in combat by Egypt, which fired 99 rounds between June 1968 and June 1970, destroying or damaging 36 Israeli aircraft. During the war in Vietnam, 589 rounds were fired between 1972 and 1975, destroying or damaging 204 aircraft of helicopters. Egypt had used the Strela-2, while North Vietnam had a mixture of Strela-2 and -2M. In both cases, the missiles would have been relatively new, and the operators were presumably fully-trained by Russian instructors, yet the average hit rate was about 35%. An aircraft taking off from any airport under maximum thrust should be an easier target than a combat aircraft. However, the reported age of the missiles fired at Mombasa suggests that these systems may have reached the end of their useful service lives, particularly if they were stored or transported under less than optimum conditions. Degraded performance may have played a part in the failure to down the airliner. Another factor to be considered is that unlike the Egyptians and the North Vietnamese 25-30 years ago, the perpetrators of the Mombasa attack may not have been properly trained in the operating procedure for the Strela-2M. Contrary to popular belief, the Russian missile is not a simple 'point-and-shoot' device. Once the grip-stock power supply has been activated to energise the grip-stock electronics and missile seeker (a process which takes between four and six seconds), the battery has an operating life of about 45 seconds. When ready to fire, the operator pulls the trigger back to its full stop. Within 0.7 seconds, if the seeker has obtained lock on the target, and if the angular tracking rate does not exceed the system's limits, a continuous red light of the pilot lamp on the sight and the sound of a buzzer indicate that target parameters are within the allowable limits, while the missile's on-board power supply is activated. The missile will automatically launch 0.8 seconds later, unless the launch conditions are violated (in which case the seeker is automatically recaged, and light and audio cues warn the gunner of the need to take aim again). During the 0.8-second interval between the missile being activated and the moment of launch, the operator must enter a lead angle in the flight direction of the target. Possible operator errors which could have resulted in a failure to intercept include firing at too short a range, or firing while the airliner was at too low an altitude for reliable missile operation. Minimum effective range of the Strela-2M is 800m, while its practical minimum engagement height is 30-50m. At lower target heights the seeker can be seduced by the horizon, or by ground-radiated heat. The Strela-2 entered service in 1968, with the improved Strela-2M following in 1970. At first exports were tightly controlled, but it was inevitable that the weapon would reach the hands of guerrilla and terrorist groups. In 1973, five armed people who had rented an apartment under the flight path to Rome's Fumicimino Airport were arrested,. They were armed with Strelas with which they had planned to shoot down an El Al airliner approaching the airport. The first abortive attempt was in 1976 when two Germans and three Palestinians planned to shoot down an El-Al jetliner taking off from Nairobi airport in Kenya. Alert local and Israeli intelligence agents caught the terrorists only hours before they were to take up their position overlooking the runway. A next attempt followed in 1979 when a terrorist affiliated with the George Habash group was apprehended in Rome, in possession of several Strela missiles. On 3 September 1978, an Air Rhodesia Viscount became the first civil airliner to be shot down by a MANPADS missile. The Strela had been fired by personnel of the Zimbabwe People's Revolution Army (ZIPRA); the group located and attacked the 18 survivors of the crash, killing 10. By the time of a 1993 American Defense Preparedness Association conference on the terrorist threats to civil aircraft, 23 SAM attacks had been made on civil aircraft. All of these incidents had taken place in regions of active conflict. According to an FAA presentation at the conference, about half of these attacks had been successful. For the next decade, the use of MANPADS against civil aircraft has largely been confined to conflict zones, but the Mombasa attack has raised concern over a terrorist threat which until now has largely been ignored. "The firing of missiles at civilian aircraft is a new and extremely dangerous development in the escalation of terrorism", said Israeli Foreign Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a day after the Mombasa attack. "It is the second wake-up call after September 11th. If any government had pressed the snooze button after September 11th, then they just received the next wake-up call, because it is now possible - and it almost happened yesterday - to fire missiles at civilian aircraft and to down such aircraft with hundreds of passengers in them. These aircraft can hardly be protected at the moment." Strela-2M has a maximum effective range of 4,200m and a maximum effective altitude of 2,300m. Given its widespread availability on the arms market, and the possibility that the weapon is in Palestinian hands, Israeli and foreign airlines are reported to have been warned some time ago to maintain an altitude of over 8,000ft during any flight over the West Bank or near the Gaza Strip. To date, no self-protection systems have been specifically designed for airline use. Known civil applications of chaff/flare launchers or IR jammers has been confined to VIP aircraft, such as transports used by heads of state. Reports that Israeli airliners carry self-protection suites have never been confirmed. In the aftermath of the Mombasa attack, Rafael was quoted in press reports as saying that it could offer self-protection suites for civil aircraft, while at this year's ILA 2002